PERSPECTIVE · TECHNOLOGY
AI, geopolitics and the future: plan with scenarios
I follow technology and international affairs because they can change the choices people have. My approach is to discuss possible scenarios and practical responses, rather than present a prediction as certainty.
By Ties Jezuit · Reviewed 11 October 2026 · General orientation
Name the decision you are watching
Are you considering a new work skill, a different country, a second payment route or a change in how you get information? A discussion is more useful when a trend connects to a real decision. Write that decision before collecting another list of alarming headlines.
Use more than one scenario
Describe continuity, a gradual change and a disruption that would affect your plan. These are planning exercises, not probabilities or forecasts. For each, record what would stay useful and which actions would need a different timing.
Keep evidence and interpretation separate
A published rule, a company announcement, a personal account and an interpretation are different kinds of information. Record the source and date, the specific claim and what it does not establish. Do the same with an AI-generated answer before relying on it.
Choose indicators instead of endless scrolling
Decide what information would actually cause you to act: a relevant official rule, a changed provider term, a confirmed work requirement or an issue affecting a service you depend on. Avoid treating every new post as a new emergency.
Build practical options
Learning a useful tool, organising documents, maintaining a reliable way to communicate and comparing realistic locations can be sensible planning topics. The appropriate action depends on your circumstances. Do not turn a speculative geopolitical story into a guaranteed investment or tax outcome.
Bring the uncertainty into the conversation
Tell me what you are considering, the sources you have seen and what you want to decide. We can structure the questions, identify assumptions and agree a next step. You do not need to share every opinion of mine to work with me.
Map the incentives behind a story
When a claim concerns governments, companies or institutions, I start with the incentives: what does each actor want, what can it actually control, and what would it lose by changing course? That can reveal a useful explanation without proving a hidden agreement. Several organisations can behave similarly because they face similar pressures. A serious question deserves an explanation that survives alternatives, not just a sequence of images that feels connected. Write the strongest competing explanation beside your preferred one.
Run a work experiment you can assess
Choose one repeated task, such as organising non-sensitive research notes or producing a first draft from your own material. Describe a good result before using an AI tool. Compare the time, errors and editing needed with your normal process. Keep the final responsibility with the person who uses the result. A tool that produces a fluent answer can still misunderstand the brief. Make the experiment small enough to stop if the benefit does not appear.
Watch rules that affect the actual use
The European Commission describes the AI Act as a risk-based framework. That is a reason to check the use case, relevant jurisdiction and current official guidance rather than assume every AI tool has the same duties. A personal writing experiment and a system used to assess job applicants deserve different questions. I am interested in the effect on everyday choices and work; a website article does not determine which legal obligations apply to a particular deployment.
Prepare for disruption without arranging your life around fear
Describe a plausible inconvenience that matters to your work: a tool changes its price, a platform suspends access, a connection fails or a client requires a different process. What would let you continue for a week? Keep copies of work you are entitled to retain, a documented manual process and another way to communicate. These are useful preparations even when dramatic predictions never happen. A response that consumes your attention and savings needs stronger evidence than a reversible experiment.
Set a decision date and stop collecting endlessly
Choose a point at which you will review the experiment and the information you have gathered. Ask which assumptions changed, what you can now do and what still depends on an outside decision. You may decide to continue, reduce the scope or wait. Waiting with a clear reason is different from remaining permanently alarmed. I would rather turn a large future question into one useful choice than sell confidence about an unknowable future.
Sources and further checks
- European Commission: AI Act framework and current guidance
Requirements and provider terms can change. Confirm the current conditions for your own case before acting. Provider details and external contacts are gathered on our partnership page.
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